MCLC: scramble for power in Xi's absence

[Denton, Kirk]

MCLC LIST
From: kirk (denton.2 at osu.edu)
Subject: scramble for power in Xi's absence
***********************************************************

Source: NYT (9/13/12):
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/world/asia/xi-jinpings-absence-puts-commu
nist-party-off-script.html

Off-Script Scramble for Power in a Chinese Leader’s Absence
By IAN JOHNSON and JONATHAN ANSFIELD

BEIJING — With still no sign of China’s designated new leader, Xi Jinping,
who has not been seen in public since Sept. 1, many insiders and
well-connected analysts say the Chinese political ship is adrift, with
factions jockeying to shape an impending Communist Party conclave.

The government has maintained its official silence about Mr. Xi’s absence.
After an initial burst of chatter, blog posts alluding to Mr. Xi have been
effectively smothered on China’s social media platforms, and China’s
beleaguered Foreign Ministry spokesman says on a daily basis that he has
no information, despite a barrage of questions from the foreign news media.

By Thursday, a number of ranking party members with years of experience
following Chinese politics were generally in agreement that Mr. Xi, 59,
had suffered either a mild heart attack or a stroke, forcing him to cancel
his appointments.

“The most reliable information we can find is that it’s his heart,” said a
senior Chinese newspaper editor who spoke only on the condition of
anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue among the party
hierarchy. Li Weidong, a former editor of a government-sponsored reformist
journal, agreed.

On Thursday, Mr. Xi’s name appeared in the Chinese press for the first
time in days, as he offered condolences
<http://www.gx.chinanews.com/2012/1910_0912/62812.html> over the recent
death of a veteran party member. But that terse report only mentioned him
among several leaders and did not imply anything more than a formal
expression of sorrow.

“I think it’s hard to say this proves anything,” said Jin Zhong, the
editor of Open, a magazine in Hong Kong. “He didn’t appear, but just sent
condolences.”

Even if Mr. Xi does soon show up in public, he will be re-entering an
unexpectedly contentious political arena.

Planned years in advance, the 18th Party Congress is slated to be the most
sweeping government reorganization in a decade, with scores of leaders
scheduled to retire. It was still expected to take place next month or
soon after in Beijing, where Mr. Xi was to take over as leader from Hu
Jintao. The Communist Party has numerous factions, but the overall
framework of the transfer was thought to have been mostly ironed out over
the past year.

But recent developments, including Mr. Xi’s mysterious cancellation of
several public appearances, suggest that may not be the case.

The most obvious sign of discord is that the dates for the congress have
not been set. Most political experts here expected it to be held in
mid-October, but without an official announcement, some are predicting it
will be delayed.

“We hear that the congress will be held in late October or early
November,” a security official from southern China said. “Currently we’re
planning for that.”

One reason for the delay, the experts say, is what now appears to have
been a contentious meeting in early August at the seaside resort of
Beidaihe, China. According to the official script, this was to have been
the final big meeting before the congress of leaders from the party’s
various factions: the military, big state enterprises, descendants of
revolutionary families, leaders of critical Communist Party organizations
and others. The details of the congress were to be finalized at Beidaihe
and the dates announced later in August.

Instead, according to information that is slowly leaking out, the Beidaihe
meeting and other sessions beforehand in Beijing were especially tense.
“The atmosphere was very bad, and the struggles were very intense,” said a
political analyst with connections to the party’s nerve center, the
General Office.

Mr. Hu, who has been criticized as having been an overly cautious and
ineffective leader during his decade in power, was also seen as defensive
and gloomy.

A veteran party scholar who attended the Beidaihe meetings said the
leaders only met over a couple of days and finalized a list of more than
2,000 delegates to the congress whose names were already public. A
proposed list of new leaders was not circulated, however, and there was no
deliberation of critical issues, like drafts of the political blueprints
to be unveiled at the congress, he said.

“We thought that these issues would be settled there,” he said, “but they
weren’t.”

Given the absence of hard information from the government, it is possible
that Mr. Xi’s absence has been caused by something other than illness. The
veteran party scholar, who dined late last week with a close family member
of Mr. Xi’s, said the relative told him he did not know Mr. Xi to be sick.
The scholar maintained that Mr. Xi’s absence was more likely because of
the unsettled political situation.

“There is still a struggle; it is not finished,” he said.

Most insiders say that they still expect Mr. Xi to re-emerge soon and take
over the top positions in the party and the government roughly on
schedule. Two party academics who advise the government said Mr. Xi could
make a speech this weekend. Almost all the insiders said he should be
healthy in time to participate fully in the Congress.

But if Mr. Xi’s sudden absence has been caused by a serious illness, it
raises the question of whether he will be strong enough to serve the two
five-year terms expected of him when he emerged in 2007 as a compromise
candidate to lead the party.

“This would be the worst-case scenario,” said a senior official in a
government research group with close ties to the central government. “It
would require a complete rebalancing of all the competing interests.”

This is not to say that the transition has ground to a halt. Most of those
who closely follow China’s party politics are predicting that the powerful
Standing Committee of the Politburo will be reduced to seven from nine
members in an effort to streamline decision-making, resolve factional
fighting over seats and rein in the power of China’s well-financed law
enforcement apparatus. In addition, most seem to agree on all but one or
two members of the probable leadership lineup.

Not all, however, believe that this plan is set in stone. The party
scholar who attended the Beidaihe retreat said he had not seen any
evidence confirming whether the Standing Committee would have seven or
nine members.

Some see the uncertainty as reflecting Mr. Hu’s desire to retain influence
for as long as possible. It is unclear, for example, how long Mr. Hu will
stay on as leader of the Central Military Commission, a job that
effectively makes him commander in chief. His predecessor, Jiang Zemin,
retained that post for two years after stepping down as party secretary,
but it appeared for a while that Mr. Hu might bow to pressure to give that
position to Mr. Xi to help the new leader consolidate power.

“He wants to continue in office,” a party historian said, “but a lot of
people are not willing to see this.”

Jane Perlez contributed reporting.