MCLC: Taiwan gets ready to vote

[Denton, Kirk]

MCLC LIST
From: kirk (denton.2 at osu.edu)
Subject: Taiwan gets ready to vote
***********************************************************

Source: Asia Times (12/21/11):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/ML21Ad03.html

TAIWAN GETS READY TO VOTE
Punters put DPP ahead in three-horse race
By Jens Kastner 

TAIPEI - The countdown to Taiwan's combined presidential and legislative
elections is on, and there's little doubt that it will be a thrilling one.

On January 14, voters on the island will have the choice between incumbent
Ma Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), Tsai Ing-wen of the
anti-unification opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the
People's First Party's (PFP) James Soong Chu-yu, who like Ma is
pro-eventual unification but threatens to tap into Ma's voter base to the
benefit of Tsai. 

Their respective appeals: Ma can highlight his historic achievement of
having turned arch-enemy China into the guarantor of the island's
prosperity; Tsai promises social justice; Soong portrays himself standing
above political feuding for the common good.

Results of opinion polls in Taiwan vary notoriously according to the
pollsters' political biases. However, National Chengchi University's
Exchange of Future Events, which doesn't ask people who they vote for but
instead how much money they would bet on a certain outcome, on December 18
published its findings, according to which on average participants bet
that Tsai can expect 51.9% of the votes, Ma 41.6% and Soong 8.6%. The
exchange has a history of relatively high accuracy in previous elections.

Needless to say, Beijing dreads a Tsai win.

Aces up Ma's sleeve

That Ma finds himself in a position fearing for his re-election is
surprising indeed at first glance. His administration not only oversaw
stunning gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 10.8% last year, signed 16
agreements with Beijing, which institutionalized cross-Taiwan Strait
relations and slashed hundreds of tariffs on Taiwanese exports to China,
but also turned decades-old fears of devastating military conflict across
the strait into a somewhat distant matter.

Instead of making plausible to the Taiwanese electorate that a DPP win
would cause cross-strait relations, and in turn also the economy, to
become a certain mess, his campaign staff expended most of their effort on
accusing Tsai Ing-wen and figures around her of crookedness.

As their latest "masterpiece", the Ma team dug up the "Yu Chang case",
claiming that when serving as vice premier Tsai once aided a biotech
start-up that her family subsequently invested in, only to be found out
for doctoring dates on documents they presented to implicate Tsai.

In the meantime, the DPP's candidate has been vociferously demanding a
reasonable share of the big China-business cake for the low and middle
income classes. Tsai's calls fall on fertile ground as despite lucrative
cross-strait ties, the unemployment rate stands at around 4.3%,
significantly higher than those of export rivals Hong Kong, South Korea
and Singapore, and per capita income refuses to rise over US$20,000. The
wealth gap is increasing, and average house prices remain at 9.2 times
annual household income.

Beijing as clumsy as ever

Observers have all along anticipated that when things turn really dicey
for Ma, Beijing will step in; but this time around not like it did in the
mid-1990s, it launched ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan, and
defiant voters reacted by handing pro-independence candidate Lee Teng-hui
a landslide victory.

In the run up to the coming elections, what was expected was some rather
spectacular show of goodwill, such as an announcement on a symbolic
withdrawal of some military assets targeting Taiwan or the nod to a free
trade agreement Taipei wishes to sign in order to better compete with
South Korea, its main trading rival.

Yet, this notion was somewhat belied on December 16. In his speech at the
Great Hall of the People, China's Vice president Xi Jinping, who is all
but certain to become the nation's next leader, didn't promise the
Taiwanese new goodies if they vote for Ma but instead - indeed much like
the high-ranking Chinese Communist Party (CCP) figures of the past -
resorted to making clear what's in stock for the island if not.

"If the 1992 consensus is denied, negotiations across the strait cannot
continue and all the agreements made in the past cannot be fulfilled.
Cross-strait relations will return to the volatile situation of the past,"
Xi said as quoted by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post.

According to the so-called 1992 consensus, both mainland China and Taiwan
belong to one China, but both sides may have their own interpretations
what that China is. The DPP has all along denied its existence and sees it
as the result of a CCP-KMT conspiracy meant to achieve unification as it
basically would rule out Taiwanese independence for ever.

If as president Tsai Ing-wen were to refuse the 1992 consensus and if, as
president, Xi sticks to his word, the impact on Taiwan's economy would be
significant. A blow would be dealt to Taiwanese exporters, banks, tourism
and agriculture sectors and China-based Taiwanese businesspeople and
industrialists, among others. The already relatively high jobless rate
would likely rise, and maintaining GDP growth at its current annual pace
of 4.5% would be very wishful thinking.

According to Steve Tsang, director of the University of Nottingham's China
Policy Institute, Xi's threat is regrettable, and not particularly
surprising. 

"It is Beijing's way to help ensure Ma will win the presidential
election," Tsang said in an interview with Asia Times Online, adding that
it might backfire as it could be seen as an attempt to interfere into
Taiwan's politics by many.

Tsang suspects that it wasn't a coincidence that Xi was chosen to
articulate this warning. "He will be the next leader, and the message is
that this represents the medium to long-term view of Beijing. Its
reiteration should eliminate any scope of misunderstanding in Taiwan that
after Hu Jintao hands over, the new administration in Beijing may relent."

But, according to Tsang, Xi's threat does not automatically commit Beijing
to reverse all agreements right away should Tsai win.

"The message to Taiwan's electorate is that there is no alternative to
Ma's approach, and that unless Tsai should accept 'the 1992 consensus', a
Tsai administration will result in cross-strait tensions returning in due
course, but that there is scope to pre-empt this. Simply put, Beijing
tells the Taiwanese to elect Ma or get Tsai to embrace 'the 1992
consensus'." 

Asked how high the chances are for either outcome, Tsang replied: "Ma may
be re-elected, but Tsai will not embrace 'the 1992 consensus'."

Lame lawmaking; new star rising

On January 14, the Taiwanese will not only elect president and vice
president but also 113 legislators. Historically, the DPP has never
obtained a legislative majority, and even if Tsai might harbor realistic
hopes to become Taiwan's next president, it is not likely her party will
gain the upper hand this time, either.

Hsu Yu-fang, an associate professor at National Dong Hwa University, told
Asia Times Online what the election results will bring about for the
Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's parliament) and for the domestic political
landscape in more general terms.

"If Tsai wins but the KMT holds a legislative majority, there are two
possible scenarios. The PFP could become a key fraction so that we will
see increasing DPP-PFP cooperation. But if the PFP fails to win seats,
there possibly could be a repeat of the lame Chen Shui-bian era."

During his tenure from 2000 to 2008, the DPP's Chen government faced a
hostile legislature, routinely leading to near standstills; Hsu's
prediction for a likewise outcome this time around is therefore bleak.

"In order to get back into power, the KMT must boycott the Tsai
administration's policy making. This will then lead to stagnation."

Hsu subsequently took on how certain scenarios would affect the standings
of Ma and Tsai within their respective parties.

"If Ma wins narrowly, he can still lead the KMT though things won't be as
rosy for him as they have been in the previous three years. His influence
is to decrease, but he will still have power because of his ability to
cultivate successors."

If Tsai loses by a small margin, but manages to expand the DPP's total
vote count, she can run again in four years in the next elections, Hsu
said. 

"But if she loses by a 500,000 margin or so, she'll have to give up her
DPP leadership position; because in the party's succession disputes, Tsai
would become the prime target of challengers within the DPP."

Regardless whether the Taiwanese see Ma or Tsai occupying the top job in
2012, Hsu sees a rising star in Taiwan politics.

"Premier Wu Den-yih [Ma's running mate for vice presidency] is very
confident to run himself for the presidency in 2016. His attitude will not
only affect the KMT's inner-party succession struggles but also Ma's
leading if Ma was to be re-elected."

Hsu holds that Beijing would appreciate Wu's rise more than those of other
prominent KMT figures even though he currently is not regarded as a
strikingly popular politician.

"Wu Den-yih is an authentic ben sheng ren [of ancestry that immigrated to
Taiwan hundreds of years ago as opposed to those who came with the
retreating KMT after the Chinese Civil War in 1949]; he's KMT old guard;
and unlike the prominent middle-aged KMT cadres such as New Taipei City
mayor Eric Chu or Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin, he has no personal dealings
with Americans." 

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd.)