MCLC: the taishang vote

Denton, Kirk denton.2 at osu.edu
Thu Dec 8 08:57:16 EST 2011


MCLC LIST
From: kirk (denton.2 at osu.edu)
Subject: the taishang vote
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Source: Asia Times (12/8/11):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/ML08Ad01.html

Politics seen in cheap China-Taiwan flights
By Jens Kastner 

TAIPEI - A deal Taiwan's Ministry of Transportation and Communications
recently brokered between business associations and five major air
carriers seems laudable at first glance. Just on time for the Chinese, or
Lunar, New Year - when ticket prices are traditionally sky-high -
discounts of nearly 50% on cross-Taiwan-Strait direct flights are to be
offered. 

However, Taiwan's main opposition party, the anti-unification Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) has cried foul. They say the timing off the
festive deal - new year falls on January 23, 2012 - is suspiciously near
presidential and legislative elections to be held on January 14.

The DPP say the discounts are aimed at luring mainland China-based
Taiwanese businesspeople back to cast their votes, potentially tipping a
tight race towards the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party.

Estimates on the number of taishang, as Taiwanese businesspeople and their
families living on the other side of the Taiwan Strait are called, range
from 1 million to 3 million. There are no official statistics from Taipei,
but it is fairly certain that at least 600,000 Taiwanese reside in
Shanghai alone. 

Analysts agree that this "constituency" tends to support the KMT.Taishang
generally prefer the KMT over the DPP due to the former's
business-friendly approach to cross-strait relations.

As Taiwan doesn't allow absentee voting, the more taishang that jump on
planes to return home and cast their ballots, the better the chances of
President Ma Ying-jeou's re-election.

Statistics from past votes suggest the taishang's numbers can make a
difference. In 2004, then-president Chen Shui-bian was re-elected by a
tiny margin of only 23,000 votes; in the municipal elections of 2010, the
popular winning margin was about 5%. Opinion polls show the upcoming
presidential election as a neck-and-neck race between Ma and Tsai Ing-wen,
the DPP's chairwoman and presidential candidate.

Direct cross-strait flights with cheaper fares will certainly encourage
Taiwanese living in China to make a new year visit.

Legitimate expatriate voters in many other democracies, such as the United
States, Japan and Britain, can vote by mail. Last year, the KMT government
proposed plans to allow absentee voting, but these met fierce resistance
from the DPP and civic groups in fear, who cited fears that elections in
Taiwan could be easily manipulated by mainland Chinese.

It was argued that as China doesn't recognize Taiwanese statehood, it
doesn't support the island's democratic system. Hence it might prevent
ballot papers from being delivered to taishang. It was further warned that
as China's entire postal system is closely monitored by the government,
ballots mailed from China could easily be doctored, and also that
authorities could pressure taishang to keep a copy of their ballot paper
to demonstrate their political leaning.

If a taishang couldn't prove that he or she voted for the KMT, his or her
business in China could encounter "difficulties" in in one way or another,
this school of thought held.

"There are millions of Taiwanese business people working in the PRC
[People's Republic of China], and absentee voting might be manipulated by
the PRC," said Central Election Commission vice chairman Liu I-chou on
December 15, 2010, effectively bringing the discussion to an end.

In 1996, Beijing fired ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan in an
attempt to prevent an election win for pro-independence Lee Teng-hui. But
the move backfired spectacularly as then-US president Bill Clinton ordered
two aircraft carrier battle groups to the area and Lee won a landslide
victory. 

This time around, it's Tsai whom Beijing wants to prevent winning, and
according to some observers, the mainland leadership is again interfering
but in a much less clumsy way. Analysts say Beijing has influenced the
"business associations" organizing the cheap flights.

"Through pro-China groups in Taiwan, Beijing wants to make all 1 million
China-based Taiwanese business people return home to vote in the
elections," wrote the Sankei Shimbun, one of Japan's major newspapers.
"Taiwanese businessmen have been told that 'if you can mobilize more votes
for Ma, you will find doing business in China far easier in the future'."

In an interview with Asia Times Online, Chen In-chin, a professor at
Taiwan's National Central University's Graduate Institute of Law and
Government, gave support to such allegations. He argued that it's likely
such a Chinese approach made the airlines offer discount flights and even
shuttle bus services from the airports to the taishang's Taiwanese
hometowns. 

"Of course, the airlines reluctantly lose money on this. But they might
have little choice as they are keen on continuing expanding their
businesses in China," Chen said. He then described how advertisements for
the discount flights in question placed on the Internet by China-based
Taiwanese business associations are presented.

"The ads urge the taishang to head back to cast their ballots. It isn't
explicitly said that they should vote for Ma Ying-jeou but instead they
rather broadly hint that the cross-strait status-quo must be preserved for
the sake of lucrative business ties," Chen said.

He added that as the elections draw nearer with the outcome still far from
certain, Beijing is busy calculating. According to Chen, the Chinese
leadership has many means at hand but has to be extremely careful to
intervene in a way that's obvious.

"At present, Beijing is trying to influence opinion by making its voice
heard in academic conferences. It is alleged that the discount flights are
part of the story, as well as manipulation of the Taiwanese media. But
there are also concerns over the possibility of assassination attempts
carried out by the local mafia to influence the elections," Chen said.

He emphasized that by no means would all China-based Taiwanese vote for Ma
and his KMT. 

"To some Taiwanese, the longer they have been living in China and the
deeper their understanding of the economic, cultural and political
differences between China and Taiwan, the less they support the idea of
eventual unification. And 30% to 40% of Taiwanese entrepreneurs even
support actual independence because they believe unification would be
detrimental to their own businesses."

Chen said if Taiwan became a mainland province, significant funds would
have to be transferred into Beijing's coffers, adding that in private
consultations with academics from Guangdong province - China's top GDP
earner - they complained bitterly about being China's money tree.

"Taiwan doesn't want to become another Guangdong. But nonetheless, about
60% of Taiwanese expats in China will still support the KMT for the
pursuit of their personal economic interests, and that's why the DPP is
extremely worried about these discount flights."

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd.)




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