[ACVM] AIV - probabilities and bets

[White, David M - APHIS]

Diplomates -
            My statistics professor always said the best way to communicate probabilities was to ask people how they would bet. APHIS has clearly invested time, money, and personnel in the bet that avian influenza will return with the winter migration.  However, many think it won't return because immunity/removal of susceptibles from the wild bird population will prevent transmission to captive birds.  Alternatively, we may be better prepared to detect and stop outbreaks, having increased knowledge/response times of primary diagnosticians, biosecurity on farms, etc.

            So, how do you bet? Are people favoring lack of transmission due to immunity in wild bird populations? Or, are we going to be off to the races because of minimal transmission to the flocks of susceptible animals that have repopulated commercial operations, and lateral spread due to biosecurity challenges similar to last spring?

Especially, what do we know, and what should we know that we don't?
Thanks
Dave
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David M. White, D.V.M., Ph.D., DACVM
Biosafety Manager
National Centers for Animal Health
USDA / APHIS / CVB / SSU
1920 Dayton Avenue
P.O. Box 844
Ames, Iowa 50010
Tel:  (515) 337-7772
Cell: (515) 231-3564
Fax: (515) 337-7617
Email: David.M.White at aphis.usda.gov<mailto:David.M.White at aphis.usda.gov>