MCLC: The coming Chinese crackup (7)

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MCLC LIST
The coming Chinese crackup (7)
Yogi Berra noted the difficulty of making predictions, but observations like Dr. Shambaugh’s call attention to underappreciated forces whose resolution is uncertain.
One person who may share Dr. Shambaugh’s sense of the possibility of a coup d’etat is Xi Jinping himself.
Xi was rumored to be the target of an assassination attempt involving a staged road accident as early as September 2012, the assailant purportedly having some connection to Bo Xilai.  (Let me emphasize that this was never substantiated.) More recently there have been rumors of sniper rifles being confiscated in interesting places. (Same caveat.)  Whether these reports indicate a climate of insecurity among the Chinese elite or reflect only the wishful thinking of exiles, I cannot say.
But certain administrative changes — more easily verified — do suggest that Xi feels that a threat to his safety may come from within the Party elite.
“I’ve heard that his security guards have all been replaced. The head of the Central Security Bureau, Cao Qing, no longer controls Xi Jinping’s guards. Xi’s guards don’t even belong to the Central Security Bureau—they are managed by the Military Commission.”
–Gao Yu, remarks delivered in New York in October 2013 and translated by Little Bluegill, published in China Digital Times 6/11/2014
More recently (and painting a slightly different picture in the details), the SCMP reported:
“President Xi Jinping has reshuffled the Central Security Bureau that is in charge of his personal safety, three separate sources have told the South China Morning Post.”
It is hard for an outsider to evaluate such reports.  But Xi’s anti-corruption drive is ruining some powerful people who command the loyalty of armed men.  When the stakes are high, the moves can be forceful.  Mr. Xi, who once mentioned that in his youth _The Godfather_ was his favorite movie, certainly understands that.
A. E. Clark <aec at raggedbanner.com>
by denton.2 at osu.edu on March 17, 2015
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