MCLC: Bo scandal not affecting political calendar

[Denton, Kirk]

MCLC LIST
From: kirk (denton.2 at osu.edu)
Subject: Bo scandal not affecting political calendar
***********************************************************

Source: NYT (5/14/12):
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/15/world/asia/chinas-political-turmoil-wont-
delay-new-leadership.html

News Analysis
Scandal Not Affecting China¹s Political Calendar
By IAN JOHNSON

BEIJING ‹ Despite a spectacular political scandal and swirling rumors of
high-level infighting, signs are that China¹s once-in-a-decade leadership
change is still on track for this autumn, according to party insiders and
observers.
 

The change, which will take place at the Communist Party¹s 18th
Congress, was scheduled last year for the second half of this year.
   
Over the weekend, the party¹s flagship newspaper People¹s Daily reported
in its overseas edition
<http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb/html/2012-05/12/content_1049771.htm>
 ‹ which is written for foreign consumption ‹ that this timetable will
be met. The article came after some foreign news media predicted that
the Congress would be delayed.

³The People¹s Daily piece was meant to counter the rumors of a delay,²
said Wang Zhengxu, a professor of political science at Nottingham
University in Britain. ³But then again, no one knows exactly when it
will be held.²     

Part of the problem is the broad window, anytime from July to December.
In practice, the meeting is usually in autumn, ideally before the Oct. 1
 National Day celebration. But that is the exception, and during the
last leadership change in 2002, the Congress was held in November.
  
³As long as it¹s done by December, it¹s impossible to speak of a delay,²
 a Beijing-based political commentator and former senior policy maker
said. ³There¹s no concrete signs of delay.²

Problems, of course, could still crop up. Much policy making in China
remains a black box, but sources say disputes could arise over how to
balance the need for an economic overhaul with social stability, which
has been the watchword of the past decade. Retired leaders, such as
former president Jiang Zemin, are also weighing in on the deliberations,
 trying to promote their own protégés or agendas.

But by and large, almost no one seriously doubts that China¹s next
president will be Xi Jinping, the current vice president, or that his
prime minister will be Li Keqiang, and that they will effectively take
power this autumn, with a final approval given at the annual session of
Parliament next spring. Indeed, their position may have been strengthened
by the fall of Bo Xilai, the mercurial provincial leader and member of the
25-member Politburo.

Mr. Bo was suspended from the Politburo in April and accused by
government media of abusing power. Officials also claim his wife was
involved in the murder of an English businessman. The case set off
widespread speculation of a power struggle at the top of the party,
dividing members of the party¹s all-powerful Standing Committee of the
Politburo.        

While that might have been the case initially, signs are that the very
top of the party has agreed that Mr. Bo will be formally charged, with a
 report expected by July, party insiders now say.

³The lower levels of the party still have to figure out exactly what the
 charges and details look like, but the leadership agrees on how his
case should be handled,² said a senior party member in the party¹s
organization department. ³It¹s over.²

Mr. Bo¹s fall could help the transition by removing from the mix an
ambitious leader who had hoped to join Mr. Xi and Mr. Li on the Standing
 Committee. Mr. Bo was a fervent champion of populist causes, but while
some of his supporters within the party will still want a voice in the
upper echelons, they will now be without their standard-bearer.

Another hot issue among China¹s political classes is the exact size of
the Standing Committee. Some have predicted that the new body might have
 7 members, which would make it more efficient, while others say it
could be expanded to 11, and thus be more representative of the party¹s
various factions.  

As Chinese politics become more institutionalized, however, changing the
 size of such bodies becomes harder, according to Yang Jisheng, a
veteran Chinese journalist and party historian. ³It has been done and
could be done, but if you do that, you have to change the expectations
of different interest groups,² he said. ³And then you make it very
complicated, so it¹s unlikely.²

A final decision on these issues, he said, is likely to come this summer
 at the leadership¹s annual summer meeting in the seaside resort town of
 Beidaihe. That will be followed by a plenum meeting and then the
Congress.        

But if these reports of rifts and divisions are overblown, important
policy issues remain unresolved. Recent evidence of an economic slowdown
 point to the need for China to move away from its heavy dependence on
exports and business investment to encourage more consumer-driven
growth.        

Yet except for loosening money supply this past weekend, few changes
seem in the offing. And despite repeated reports of political change ‹
most recently in Monday¹s People¹s Daily ‹ these seem to involve
bureaucratic tweaks to the existing structure rather than any
fundamental overhaul.

³The real challenge isn¹t the political maneuvers, but the desire to
reform,² said a senior editor at a party newspaper. ³It¹s the content
that¹s the problem.²