[ACVM] REDUX & Volunteers: AIV - probabilities and bets

[White, David M - APHIS]

Diplomates - 
	So, I never received enough of a sample size of bets to chart responses, but Mother Nature is the wrench in every set of gears.  If you bet HPAI would be back before winter's end, you win (but really, we lose). If you bet the virus from last year would be back, you lose (and really, we win - at least so far).

	As a test run on ACVM position statements this is an **official call for volunteers** to author a position statement on the current (and recent past?) AIV outbreaks in the US.  As previously mentioned, I don't think it should duplicate information elsewhere, but can add value by synthesizing the information into a set of recommendations that are relevant to practitioners in the field, diagnosticians, or any other broad (or focused?) audience that we think might appreciate some analysis and prognosis.

	I've included some websites with that type of information below.  Please respond to the listserv that you are willing to be one of (3? 5?) people willing to work on a position statement, and then begin working on it as quickly as you are able.  I'll be happy to coordinate the efforts of the group with vetting by the BoGovernors so that the statement comes from the ACVM and not any one person (and the hazards that such identification may bring).

	Thanks again - and please - speak up!
Thanks
Dave

https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/FAQs/Pages/avian-influenza-FAQs-veterinarians.aspx 

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/%21ut/p/a1/04_Sj9CPykssy0xPLMnMz0vMAfGjzOK9_D2MDJ0MjDzdgy1dDTz9wtx8LXzMjf09TIAKIoEKnN0dPUzMfQwMDEwsjAw8XZw8XMwtfQ0MPM2I02-AAzgaENIfrh-FpsTd1QmoxM0nwNzby8jA2xSqAJ8TwQrwuKEgNzTCINNTEQDfLcka/?1dmy&urile=wcm:path:/aphis_content_library/sa_our_focus/sa_animal_health/sa_animal_disease_information/sa_avian_health/ct_avian_influenza_disease 

-----Original Message-----
From: White, David M - APHIS 
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2015 11:07 AM
To: acvm_diplomates at lists.osu.edu
Subject: RE: AIV - probabilities and bets

Diplomates - an anonymized response from a source that doesn't want to be identified as their full opinion might ruffle the feathers (they said it, not me) of industry collaborators/partners.  Any others who would like to similarly give a full scientific opinion and be spared political backlash can send to me privately, and I'll anonymize for you.

To further the post - I will chart responses in some appropriate way if we get a decent sample size...
Thanks
Dave


Hello David,

I will go way out on a limb and bet no new HPAI in the US in 2016.  It's well documented that HPAI doesn't persist in wild bird populations in Europe, Africa and Asia, where there have been very extensive opportunities for wild bird exposure for the last 20 years, at the absolute least - it arises, or it's introduced, almost certainly from domestic poultry, usually causes some noticeable events in some susceptible population or other, may be sporadically transmitted to other domestic poultry, and then disappears from the wild population.  If there's no source of introduction, the chances of a HPAI spontaneously arising are minimal, and there is a long pause in some sort of poorly understood, yet real, natural cycle of major disease events

On the other hand, if any relevant agriculture authorities tolerate persistence of H5 or H7 viruses in domestic bird populations, mainly by allowing vaccination rather than using stamping out alone to control H5 and H7 viruses, then HPAI will continue to circulate in domestic birds, and then frequently into and occasionally back out of wild bird populations.  I believe this is not relevant because I believe our stamping out efforts were successful.

In terms of what we don't know, I think the most important question would be whether there is continued circulation of H5 or H7 viruses in some domestic population, in the US or its neighbors, where some population of wild birds could get exposed.  This is what my bet really comes down to:  I don't think so.  It would pretty much require illegal vaccination for this to be the case.  I think this event has run its course and the viral population from which these viruses could re-emerge or a new HPAI could arise, has been eliminated.

So, I'll check in with you on 31 Dec 2016 and inquire what my prize is if I'm right.  If I'm wrong, I will blame it on the liberal media.

Will you be putting our bets on some sort of scatter plot?




-----Original Message-----
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2015 10:56 AM
To: acvm_diplomates at lists.osu.edu
Subject: [ACVM] AIV - probabilities and bets

Diplomates -
            My statistics professor always said the best way to communicate probabilities was to ask people how they would bet. APHIS has clearly invested time, money, and personnel in the bet that avian influenza will return with the winter migration.  However, many think it won't return because immunity/removal of susceptibles from the wild bird population will prevent transmission to captive birds.  Alternatively, we may be better prepared to detect and stop outbreaks, having increased knowledge/response times of primary diagnosticians, biosecurity on farms, etc.

            So, how do you bet? Are people favoring lack of transmission due to immunity in wild bird populations? Or, are we going to be off to the races because of minimal transmission to the flocks of susceptible animals that have repopulated commercial operations, and lateral spread due to biosecurity challenges similar to last spring?

Especially, what do we know, and what should we know that we don't?
Thanks
Dave
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